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Ethiopia retakes Mekelle, cuts ties with Eritrea and is reported to be pulling troops out of Somalia. Why the Horn of Africa crisis matters to Kenya

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Ethiopian federal forces, together with an allied Tigrayan group, entered Mekelle, the capital of Tigray, on Saturday 4 October, a day after retaking the city’s airport. The Tigray People’s Liberation Front said it had “temporarily moved out” of the city to operate from elsewhere.

Fighting in northern Ethiopia resumed on 23 September, when an alliance that includes the TPLF and the Amhara Fano militia seized airports at Mekelle, Axum and Shire. Ethiopian Airlines suspended flights to the region. Al Jazeera reports at least 52 civilians killed; the army claims about 270 Tigrayan fighters killed in North Wollo. None of these figures has been independently verified.

The wider fallout

  • On 1 October Ethiopia closed its embassy in Asmara and expelled 10 Eritrean diplomats, accusing Eritrea of backing the rebels. Eritrea cut ties and denies the accusation. Egypt and Ethiopia also expelled each other’s diplomats.
  • On 4 October the leaders of Egypt, Eritrea, Somalia and Sudan met at New Alamein in Egypt and declared that control of the Red Sea should stay with coastal states, a rebuff to landlocked Ethiopia’s push for sea access.
  • The African Union, criticised by Egypt, said its 1 October statement was “simply a call for de-escalation” and blamed no neighbour. On Monday the AU Commission chairperson congratulated Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed on his re-election.
  • Bloomberg reported that Ethiopia is preparing to withdraw more than 3,000 soldiers from Somalia, about 2,500 of them serving in the African Union mission, AUSSOM, to fight at home. A Somali defence official told The EastAfrican: “Ethiopia has not informed us of any plan to withdraw its troops from Somalia.”
  • The EastAfrican also reports that United States funding for the UN support office in Somalia may end in December, which would strain AUSSOM further.
  • Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud told Al Jazeera that Al-Shabaab has been pushed hundreds of kilometres from Mogadishu: “The war may continue for a little longer, but there is no possibility that Al-Shabaab can once again take control of the entire country.”

The US State Department said the tensions “have the potential to affect the entire region”.

Why it matters to Kenya

  • Ethiopia is Kenya’s northern neighbour. A long war there could mean refugees, disrupted trade through Moyale and a weaker regional bloc. Eritrea left IGAD, the regional body Kenya belongs to, in December 2025.
  • Kenyan soldiers serve in AUSSOM. Fewer Ethiopian troops and less money put more weight on Kenya and the other contributors, and Al-Shabaab has attacked Kenya before.
  • Ethiopian Airlines, a key connection for travellers through Nairobi, has suspended flights to Tigray. Check before you book.
  • The Kenyan Government had not commented publicly on the fighting by Monday.

Sources: Al Jazeera (Mekelle), Al Jazeera (Alamein declaration, Eritrea), Al Jazeera (casualties, US statement), African Union (clarification), The EastAfrican (troop withdrawal, US funding), Al Jazeera (Somali president), The EastAfrican (IGAD).

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